🏔️ CHALLENGE

A leading global coffee brand faced a critical strategic question: does launching a new product line generate incremental revenue, or does it risk cannibalizing existing products in the same category?

♟️ CLIENT'S HYPOTHESIS

The client believed that launching the new product line would likely cannibalize a significant portion of their existing product's revenue, potentially making the expansion a zero-sum game.

💰 AYBEE TEST RESULTS

The data revealed clear incremental growth with no self-cannibalization. The new product line captured market share from competitors, not from the brand's own products. Revenue increased by 72%, driven by strong demand for larger packs and expanded choice.

📊 ACTION POINTS:

Launch the new product line with confidence. The test confirmed that expansion would drive incremental growth, not cannibalization. Additionally, consider introducing larger packaging formats and refining packaging design to address consumer feedback on pricing perception and visual appeal.

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✅ OUTCOME:

We helped one of the world's leading coffee brands unlock a 72% revenue increase by proving that expansion was a growth opportunity, not a cannibalization risk. The launch succeeded in capturing market share from competitors while strengthening the brand's portfolio.

Key Details

• Client: Leading Global Coffee Brand (via BOI - Board of Innovation)
• Industry: Coffee / FMCGMarket: Amazon
• Use Case: New Product Line Launch - Cannibalization Testing
• Participants: 1,000 participants across two scenariosConfidence Level: 99%

The Full Story

The Expansion Dilemma

BOI (Board of Innovation), a consultancy and technology company specializing in autonomous innovation, collaborated with Aybee to assist one of their clients—a leading global coffee brand—in evaluating a high-stakes strategic decision.

The brand wanted to expand into a new product category on Amazon by launching two new product lines (each consisting of 3 products). The potential upside was significant: capturing new market share, offering customers more choice, and driving revenue growth. But the risk was equally substantial: what if the new products simply stole sales from their existing lineup?

At the time of testing, the client had no products in this category on the market, making this a pure expansion play. The critical question was whether launching both product lines would deliver incremental growth or merely redistribute existing revenue through self-cannibalization.

Before committing to production, distribution, and marketing investment, the brand partnered with Aybee to test the strategy in a realistic buying environment.

The Test: Incremental Growth vs. Cannibalization

Aybee designed a realistic Amazon simulation with 1,000 participants, equally divided into two scenarios:

Scenario 1: Limited Portfolio

• Featured 7 products total
• 3 new products from the coffee brand
• 4 products from competitors
• This represented a conservative launch strategy with one product line

Scenario 2: Expanded Portfolio

• Featured 10 products total
• All products from Scenario 1 (3 from the brand + 4 from competitors)
• Plus 3 additional new products from the coffee brand (the second product line)
• This represented the full expansion strategy with both product lines

Participants browsed the simulated Amazon environment, interacted with product listings, and made purchase decisions just as they would in real life. They could select a product or indicate they weren't interested in any option. Aybee tracked all purchasing behavior, content interaction, and user journeys, then collected qualitative feedback through open-ended questions to understand the drivers and barriers behind each decision.

The Clear Verdict: Growth, Not Cannibalization

The results delivered a definitive answer with 99% confidence:

Scenario 1 Performance:

• 106 products sold
• 42% revenue share for the brand

Scenario 2 Performance:

• 172 products sold (+62 more units)
• 123 from the original 3 products
• 49 from the new 3 products
• 65% revenue share for the brand (+23 percentage points)
• 44% from the original products
• 21% from the new products

The expansion drove a 72% revenue increase compared to the limited portfolio approach. Critically, this growth was not driven by self-cannibalization—the original 3 products actually sold more units in Scenario 2 (123) than in Scenario 1 (106).

Where did the growth come from? Market share gains from the two largest competitors. The expanded portfolio gave customers more reasons to choose the brand over competitors, and some buyers who weren't interested in Scenario 1 found options they liked in Scenario 2.

The Strategic Insights

Beyond proving the business case for expansion, Aybee's analysis uncovered four critical insights to optimize the launch:

1. Product Portfolio Expansion Works (99% confidence)

• Adding the second product line significantly increased revenue and market share
• Consumers responded positively to the expanded range, indicating strong interest in the new offerings
• The brand should continue exploring product expansion strategies to capture even more market share

2. Strong Demand for Larger Packaging

• In Scenario 1, one of the existing products achieved over 40% brand share, making it the best-performing product among those tested
• The consistently high number of units purchased per consumer suggested strong demand for larger packaging formats
• The coffee brand should consider introducing larger formats to meet this demand and boost sales

3. Price and Packaging Posed Barriers

• Despite a lower price per serving, many consumers still found the out-of-pocket price too high for the new products
• Additionally, the current packaging design for certain variants was seen as unattractive and busy
• The brand should refine packaging design to make it more appealing and simpler, while addressing pricing perception through targeted messaging about value for money

4. Flavors as a Strong Purchase Driver

• Across all tested flavors, specific flavors received highly positive feedback, with many praising the taste as a key reason for purchase
• Flavor innovation plays a significant role in driving product success
• The coffee brand should continue exploring new and unique flavors to capitalize on this trend and attract a wider range of consumers

The Launch Decision

Armed with statistically significant proof that expansion would drive growth—not cannibalization—the brand made the decision to launch the new product line.

The test eliminated the strategic uncertainty and de-risked the investment. Instead of guessing whether the expansion would work, they knew it would deliver a 72% revenue increase with 99% confidence.

The Impact

By testing before launching, the coffee brand achieved:

• 72% revenue increase through portfolio expansion
• Market share gains from competitors, not self-cannibalization
• Proof of incremental growth with 99% statistical confidence
• Actionable insights on packaging, pricing perception, and flavor innovation
• De-risked expansion strategy backed by real customer behavior

The approach transformed a high-risk strategic decision into a data-backed certainty, allowing the brand to invest confidently in production, distribution, and marketing.

As the results demonstrate, the fear of cannibalization—while understandable—was unfounded. The real opportunity was capturing competitor market share through expanded choice and superior offerings.

Why This Matters

This case study demonstrates a critical truth in portfolio strategy: expansion fears are often based on assumptions, not data. Brands frequently avoid launching new products because they fear cannibalizing existing sales, but the real risk is often leaving revenue on the table by not expanding.

Aybee's cannibalization testing allows brands to:

• Test expansion strategies before committing to production—eliminating costly guesswork
• Distinguish between incremental growth and self-cannibalization with statistical confidence
• Understand where new revenue comes from—competitors, new buyers, or existing products
• Identify optimization opportunities for packaging, pricing, and positioning
• Make bold strategic decisions backed by real customer behavior, not assumptions

Curious whether your expansion will cannibalize or grow?

With Aybee, test new product lines, formats, or categories in a real buyer environment—before you invest in production or distribution.

Validate before you launch. Expand with confidence.